Five Percent — Graphite Growth Research — Five Percent
Five Percent
Graphite's team of academic researchers conducts novel research in AI and marketing. We identify the 5% of strategies that drive impact in AEO, SEO & performance marketing.
Team Members
Gregory Druck, PhD
Chief AI Officer
Chief AI Officer at Graphite, leading the team building AI tools for growth and researching how AI is reshaping marketing. Previously Chief Data Scientist at Yummly and an NLP and search researcher at Yahoo! Research, with internships at Google and Microsoft. Ph.D. in machine learning from UMass Amherst, advised by Andrew McCallum.
Jose Luis Paredes, PhD
Senior Data Specialist
Senior Data Scientist at Graphite. Ph.D. and Master's from the University of Delaware, followed by more than two decades as a professor at the University of Los Andes. Author of over 50 peer-reviewed research papers and holder of 5 U.S. patents. Previously Head of Data Science at GoToDigital.
Ethan Smith
CEO
Founder and CEO of Graphite, the research-driven growth agency behind work for Webflow, Adobe, and Upwork. Teaches SEO and AEO at Reforge and is an adjunct professor at IE Business School. Research published in the Financial Times, Axios, and The Atlantic. Previously a growth advisor to Masterclass, Robinhood, and Honey.
Research
AI Tells
Astra Uses Corrective Framing at 12x the Human Rate
| version | GPT |
|---|---|
| 4.1 | 3.264 |
| 5 | 3.298 |
| 5.6 Sol | 7.896 |
| 6 Astra | 12.422 |
Do Not Force Search in Prompt Tracking
Visibility (%):
| entity | Unforced Search Visibility | Forced Search Visibility |
|---|---|---|
| Calendly | 100 | 99 |
| Zoho | 90 | 18 |
| Cal.com | 83 | 100 |
| Google Appointment Schedule | 78 | 24 |
| Microsoft Bookings | 76 | 3 |
| Google Calendar | 22 | 42 |
AI Search Collapse
Simulations of AI retrieving its own content ending in collapse (%):
| sim | Collapsed at start (%) | Collapsed at end (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Replace All | 2.97 | 88.12 |
| Replace One | 2.97 | 88.12 |
| Search | 1.98 | 77.23 |
Last-Touch Attribution Only Captures 10% of n8n's AEO Conversions
% of conversion from channel:
| channel | Last-touch (GA4) | Self-reported (survey) |
|---|---|---|
| Google Search | 7 | 30 |
| AI/LLM | 0.9 | 9 |
AI Now Writes as Many Online Articles as Humans
Primarily AI-generated articles (%):
| period | AI | Human |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-Q1 | 0.97 | 99.03 |
| 2020-Q2 | 0.9 | 99.1 |
| 2020-Q3 | 0.95 | 99.05 |
| 2020-Q4 | 0.64 | 99.36 |
| 2021-Q1 | 1.04 | 98.96 |
| 2021-Q2 | 1.23 | 98.77 |
| 2021-Q3 | 0.89 | 99.11 |
| 2021-Q4 | 1.18 | 98.82 |
| 2022-Q1 | 1.54 | 98.46 |
| 2022-Q2 | 2.37 | 97.63 |
| 2022-Q3 | 3.85 | 96.15 |
| 2022-Q4 | 4.6 | 95.4 |
| 2023-Q1 | 14.02 | 85.98 |
| 2023-Q2 | 25.14 | 74.86 |
| 2023-Q3 | 33.69 | 66.31 |
| 2023-Q4 | 35.92 | 64.08 |
| 2024-Q1 | 38.23 | 61.77 |
| 2024-Q2 | 37.22 | 62.78 |
| 2024-Q3 | 41.81 | 58.19 |
| 2024-Q4 | 47.04 | 52.96 |
| 2025-Q1 | 49.61 | 50.39 |
| 2025-Q2 | 44.58 | 55.42 |
| 2025-Q3 | 49.22 | 50.78 |
| 2025-Q4 | 50.9 | 49.1 |
| 2026-Q1 | 49.94 | 50.06 |
How to Track Entity Position in AI
Average measured position by sample size:
| n | Calendly | Google Appointment Schedule | Google Calendar | Microsoft Bookings | Acuity Scheduling | Zoho Bookings | Doodle | SavvyCal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n=10 | 1 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.95 | 4.75 | 5.4 | 5.45 | 6.25 |
| n=20 | 1 | 2.65 | 4.35 | 4.3 | 4.75 | 5 | 5.6 | 6.45 |
| n=40 | 1 | 2.55 | 3.45 | 4.15 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| n=100 | 1 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.15 | 4.9 | 5.55 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
| GT | 1 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.15 | 4.9 | 5.55 | 5.8 | 5.85 |
Demystifying Randomness in AI: Key Takeaways
Visibility Estimation Error:
| sampleSize | Visibility Estimation Error |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.142 |
| 3 | 0.092 |
| 5 | 0.074 |
| 7 | 0.065 |
| 10 | 0.056 |
| 20 | 0.042 |
| 30 | 0.036 |
| 40 | 0.033 |
| 50 | 0.031 |
| 60 | 0.029 |
| 80 | 0.027 |
| 100 | 0.025 |
Case Studies
Webflow 2x'd Sign-Ups from LLMs
AI search referral signups (K):
| month | AI search referral signups (K) |
|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | 0.719K |
| Feb 2024 | 0.386K |
| Mar 2024 | 0.337K |
| Apr 2024 | 0.243K |
| May 2024 | 0.105K |
| Jun 2024 | 0.091K |
| Jul 2024 | 0.193K |
| Aug 2024 | 1.348K |
| Sep 2024 | 3.031K |
| Oct 2024 | 3.002K |
| Nov 2024 | 4.294K |
| Dec 2024 | 5.609K |
| Jan 2025 | 6.412K |
| Feb 2025 | 6.161K |
| Mar 2025 | 7.126K |
| Apr 2025 | 11.157K |
| May 2025 | 14.231K |
| Jun 2025 | 12.727K |
| Jul 2025 | 12.563K |
Fourthwall Increased Search Revenue by 936% in 9 Months
| month | value |
|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | 0.01K |
| Sep 2021 | 0.022K |
| Oct 2021 | 0.024K |
| Nov 2021 | 0.051K |
| Dec 2021 | 0.265K |
| Jan 2022 | 0.396K |
| Feb 2022 | 2.034K |
| Mar 2022 | 3.197K |
| Apr 2022 | 4.209K |
| May 2022 | 4.474K |
| Jun 2022 | 3.646K |
| Jul 2022 | 3.928K |
| Aug 2022 | 4.632K |
| Sep 2022 | 5.23K |
| Oct 2022 | 5.542K |
| Nov 2022 | 5.948K |
| Dec 2022 | 5.833K |
| Jan 2023 | 6.155K |
| Feb 2023 | 6.921K |
| Mar 2023 | 7.907K |
| Apr 2023 | 7.922K |
| May 2023 | 8.744K |
| Jun 2023 | 11.018K |
| Jul 2023 | 15.218K |
| Aug 2023 | 17.149K |
| Sep 2023 | 16.812K |
| Oct 2023 | 18.129K |
| Nov 2023 | 20.646K |
| Dec 2023 | 24.861K |
| Jan 2024 | 24.934K |
| Feb 2024 | 29.046K |
| Mar 2024 | 36.261K |
| Apr 2024 | 52.142K |
| May 2024 | 55.811K |
| Jun 2024 | 67.211K |
| Jul 2024 | 76.218K |
| Aug 2024 | 78.056K |
| Sep 2024 | 82.892K |
| Oct 2024 | 78.804K |
| Nov 2024 | 85.853K |
| Dec 2024 | 89.706K |
| Jan 2025 | 121.389K |
| Feb 2025 | 116.018K |
| Mar 2025 | 127.473K |
| Apr 2025 | 148.075K |
| May 2025 | 171.013K |
| Jun 2025 | 152.655K |
| Jul 2025 | 149.11K |
BetterUp Grew Monthly Organic Traffic from 74K to 3.8M
| month | value |
|---|---|
| Aug 2021 | 0.074M |
| Sep 2021 | 0.15M |
| Oct 2021 | 0.231M |
| Nov 2021 | 0.258M |
| Dec 2021 | 0.271M |
| Jan 2022 | 0.417M |
| Feb 2022 | 0.63M |
| Mar 2022 | 0.776M |
| Apr 2022 | 0.939M |
| May 2022 | 1.045M |
| Jun 2022 | 1.048M |
| Jul 2022 | 1.162M |
| Aug 2022 | 1.283M |
| Sep 2022 | 1.366M |
| Oct 2022 | 1.634M |
| Nov 2022 | 1.837M |
| Dec 2022 | 1.729M |
| Jan 2023 | 2.029M |
| Feb 2023 | 2.109M |
| Mar 2023 | 2.213M |
| Apr 2023 | 2.413M |
| May 2023 | 2.481M |
| Jun 2023 | 2.606M |
| Jul 2023 | 2.685M |
| Aug 2023 | 2.907M |
| Sep 2023 | 3.222M |
| Oct 2023 | 3.499M |
| Nov 2023 | 3.486M |
| Dec 2023 | 3.135M |
| Jan 2024 | 3.749M |
| Feb 2024 | 3.782M |
| Mar 2024 | 3.295M |
| Apr 2024 | 2.705M |
| May 2024 | 2.723M |
| Jun 2024 | 2.329M |
MasterClass Grew Monthly Non-Branded Traffic from 0 to 571K
| month | value |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 0.147M |
| Feb 2018 | 0.104M |
| Mar 2018 | 0.112M |
| Apr 2018 | 0.131M |
| May 2018 | 0.131M |
| Jun 2018 | 0.131M |
| Jul 2018 | 0.155M |
| Aug 2018 | 0.155M |
| Sep 2018 | 0.138M |
| Oct 2018 | 0.137M |
| Nov 2018 | 0.153M |
| Dec 2018 | 0.183M |
| Jan 2019 | 0.172M |
| Feb 2019 | 0.181M |
| Mar 2019 | 0.181M |
| Apr 2019 | 0.217M |
| May 2019 | 0.281M |
| Jun 2019 | 0.318M |
| Jul 2019 | 0.386M |
| Aug 2019 | 0.471M |
| Sep 2019 | 0.558M |
| Oct 2019 | 0.597M |
| Nov 2019 | 0.726M |
| Dec 2019 | 0.906M |
| Jan 2020 | 0.846M |
| Feb 2020 | 0.855M |
| Mar 2020 | 1.178M |
| Apr 2020 | 2.045M |
| May 2020 | 1.766M |
| Jun 2020 | 1.395M |
| Jul 2020 | 1.306M |
| Aug 2020 | 1.413M |
| Sep 2020 | 1.873M |
| Oct 2020 | 2.237M |
| Nov 2020 | 2.446M |
| Dec 2020 | 3.109M |
| Jan 2021 | 3.474M |
| Feb 2021 | 3.996M |
| Mar 2021 | 3.979M |
| Apr 2021 | 3.822M |
| May 2021 | 3.834M |
| Jun 2021 | 3.717M |
| Jul 2021 | 3.295M |
| Aug 2021 | 3.479M |
| Sep 2021 | 4.354M |
| Oct 2021 | 4.823M |
| Nov 2021 | 5.102M |
| Dec 2021 | 5.294M |
| Jan 2022 | 6.133M |
| Feb 2022 | 6.71M |
| Mar 2022 | 7.24M |
| Apr 2022 | 7.288M |
| May 2022 | 7.274M |
| Jun 2022 | 7.009M |
| Jul 2022 | 7.025M |
| Aug 2022 | 7.221M |
| Sep 2022 | 7.401M |
| Oct 2022 | 7.515M |
| Nov 2022 | 7.01M |
| Dec 2022 | 6.958M |
| Jan 2023 | 7.669M |
| Feb 2023 | 6.645M |
| Mar 2023 | 6.973M |
| Apr 2023 | 6.706M |
| May 2023 | 6.599M |
| Jun 2023 | 6.211M |
| Jul 2023 | 6.609M |
| Aug 2023 | 6.402M |
| Sep 2023 | 6.862M |
| Oct 2023 | 6.654M |
| Nov 2023 | 6.412M |
| Dec 2023 | 6.244M |